Archive for April, 2016

Apr 25 2016

Mediation in IR

When the conflicting parties cannot find a way out, the need might arise for a third party intervention. In international conflicts this intervention can be in forms of facilitation, arbitration, adjudication and mediation. In ‘The Politics of International Arbitration and Adjudication’(2013) by Stephen E. Gent, we see when, why and over which issues the states choose arbitration and adjudication, which is the most binding type of intervention as it is conducted by international law and courts, here of course we put aside the discussion about the international law itself, in an anarchical structure. In his article ‘Using the Right Tool for the Job: Mediator Leverage and Conflict Resolution’(2013), Beardsley discusses the styles for a mediator using leverage as a persuasion method over the conflicting parties with its strengths and weaknesses. Among the all articles, however, I found the Zartman reading ‘International Mediation’ the most comprehensive one as he looks at also the question by which motivations a third party intervenes into a conflict besides the motivations of the conflicting parties to consider mediation as an attempt to resolve the conflict. In addition, he also gives prescription for the timing of the intervention, underlining the ripe moment and the importance of persuasion not only showing the resolution something desirable but also by using power. He also frames the ways which the power changes the form according to ‘triangle’, mediator as communicator, as formulator and manipulator based on the stage of the conflict. However, after all these 3 pieces, I would also like to read the place, tactics, role of spoilers in a mediation as the mediator also have to keep them under control. In addition, as we know from mediation literature, generally the moderate ones in a party mostly take the prior roles in a mediation process. Therefore, I wonder how to keep the balance with those moderate and hard-liners in a party. I would consider the question, what would a mediator should do when there is a power asymmetry among/ between parties, as sometimes mediators choose the way to strengthen the weaker party but Zartman already puts the importance of being more powerful vis-à-vis other party to accept the mediation.

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Apr 25 2016

‘Two Level Games’, by Putnam, 1988

The differences, similarities and linkage between domestic and international systems has always been one of the most popular subjects in IR. Although some argue that there is no relationship between the two or rejects the effects on each other, we can easily observe the relation considering historical and contemporary relations especially on being part of international organizations and/or on international agreements resulting from negotiations. Before giving these examples, we can mention general framework of the article of Putnam, names as ‘Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games’(1988). In this article, Putnam asserts that each of domestic and international relations has an impact on and can determine the other by looking at ratification process, bureaucratic mechanism, reverberation, voluntary and involuntary defection and credibility of the commitment at Level I negotiators’ strategies, bargaining and Level II preferences and coalitions, institutions. I found this article very useful when I remember the most popular example for this assumption: the USA’ s membership to League of Nations. Although the institution was a part of ‘Wilsonian Idealism’ American Senate rejected to be a member of it.

If we consider more contemporary examples, the representatives of the USA and Republic of Turkey has agreed on using military bases for US intervention in Iraq in 2003, Turkish Parliamentary rejected it and it caused deteriation of relations between Turkey and the USA for a while. For this rejection we can consider reverberation which was general negative perception in Turkish society for US intervention in Iraq. I would also question the similarity between reverberation and ‘audience cost’ and say that reverberation can be general attitude but in ‘audience cost’ we witness some kind of ‘punishment’ after unrest of a policy by the government, for example it might not be elected in the next elections.

Currently, Turkish Prime Minister said that ”we call members of Turkish Parliamentary to collaborate for the ratification of the agreement with EU on refugee crisis and legislation of the EU required amendments for accession” on January 26, 2016 after the negotiations with the EU.

Lastly, I would also like to highlight one of the points that the State is not a monolithic organization rather a composition of various branches each of them has their own structure and ‘organizational interest’ which need to be coordinated under the ‘national interest’ like Putnam points out this structural differentiation in addition to the fact that leaders are part of both domestic and international arena being representatives of their party, their position in state structure in domestic politics and their state in the international arena.

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Apr 25 2016

‘Cooperation under Anarchy’ by Oye, 1985

As we previously agreed on, International Relations operate under ‘anarchy’ which implies that there is no central, higher authority. In addition, we also accepted that sometimes negotiations can fail due to uncertainty caused by this anarchical nature of IR. Therefore, we can infer that under anarchy, it is hard for the states to cooperate especially in issues of ‘high politics’ such as security and power. In ‘Explaining Cooperation under Anarchy: Hypotheses and Strategies’(1985), Oye explains under which conditions states can cooperate departing from some models for instance Prisoners’ Dilemma, Stag Hunt, Payoff Structure and Shadow of the Future. By referring the need for realization of mutual benefit, the author also introduces the concepts of harmony, where one can observe ‘the absence of gain from defection’ and deadlock caused by ‘absence of mutual interest’. (p.7)

In the article, Oye also presents unilateral, bilateral and multilateral strategies linking them to the importance of repeating the game, issue of reciprocity, reliability and number of actors which makes the situation more costly and complex to solve as the problems in transactions, recognition, control problems, sanctioning increases.

When we look at the attempts to create global regimes on various issues, this article can explain very well. For example, postal system, regime on whales, train system could have been achieved but climate change which gives responsibility do decrease carbon emissions, nuclear issue, based on NPT which most nuclear countries have not signed yet are the complex issues makes international arena busy. In addition, when we look at ‘Fight against terrorism’ we can also observe the level of hardship in cooperation under anarchical nature in which they have to survive based on their self-interest and self-help.

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Apr 25 2016

‘Hypotheses on Misperception’ by Jervis(1968)

In previous weeks, we discussed that people are not always rational. In Fearon’s article for instance, we also touched upon the problems in miscalculation of capabilities and probabilities of war and also the problem of uncertainty of others’ capabilities and intentions.

We continued with deterrence and spiral models to decide how
to evaluate and respond the other’s actions by referring the risks of misunderstanding and mistreating other actors. In Jervis’ article,
‘Hypothesis on Misperception’ (1968), we read 15 hypotheses about how different an actor perceive the situation and/ or data based on his/her relations, past experiences, historical knowledge and emotions towards the other(s). Therefore, according to
Jervis, it is important for an actor how he/she is ‘wedded to the established view or closed to new info.’(p.459) In addition, according to Jervis, ‘pure empiricism is impossible’
as we have beliefs, theories to understand and explain the reality and also emotions.(pp.457-458) Furthermore, Jervis gives a prescription composed of 5 ‘safeguards’ based on previous
assumptions. These safeguards basically highlight the neces
sity of being aware of unbiased interpretations, of not being tied to theories and images of other actors, of having devil’s advocate(s) around and making as much as observable beliefs, assumptions and predictions.(pp. 462-466)
He also puts emphasis on cognitive threshold as perceptions matter. Thus, in ‘Sources of Concepts’ part in the article, he underlines the existence of a concept in an actor, in IR, it first comes from the actor’s belief in his/her own domestic political system and after that previous experiences and international history. By pointing this out, Jervis also asserts that if the experience or historical event is recent, the states person will know better and will frame the situation according to this event easily. (pp- 466-469)
To conclude, I would say that I really benefited from the
reading as it opens another framework to understand the actors’ positions, regarding emotions and (mis)perception, the
only thing I would ask to what extent and actor should make as
sumptions, beliefs and predictions explicitly because it can make easy to follow the actor from his/her fellows but it
can also make vulnerable the actor.

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